AMDG Technical Analytics


Technical Analysis by AMDG Team: Time to Bullish

Posted on Dec 03, 2022

DXY Update:
Dollar is weakening and has hit our 2nd target of 104. Ultimately, the target would be below 100 for macro view.
This would mean stocks, commodities & crypto would benefit in the medium term.

BTC Low Time Frame (LTF) View:

Money Flow Index is almost bottoming and with the weak weekend Price Action, look for nearest support at 16.6-16.7k whilst resistance is at 17.1k.

BTC High Time Frame (HTF) View (Daily):
LMACD shows good momentum going forward. Once we clear 17.1k, BTC will go back into the descending wedge pattern, confirming that the past month's Price Action was a deviation. If 17.1k is cleared, next target is 18.1k.

How are we going to play this? 

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Technical Analysis by AMDG Team: “Gravestone Doji” candle forming

Higher timeframe view to set the context: 2 months after the Pi Cycle Bottom indicator flashed the buy signal, we're seeing a “Gravestone Doji” candle forming this month. 

What is interesting is that it seems that we are getting a horizontal support on last cycle's all-time high of 19.6k for 4 months running. This month's candle looks to be a potential reversal on the higher timeframe.

Next, we'll look at the weekly chart to gauge what could possibly be the next move for BTC. Based on the VMC indicator, a buy signal flashed due to a price increase before the CPI results were released on 13 September. The market bottom indicator also denotes ease in selling pressure. Using the Logarithmic MACD oscillator, it does seem like a crossover is about to happen which could lead to positive prices.

End note: DXY could've topped out with a sell signal on VMC but current week's candle has canceled out last week's bearish hammer top. All the indicators are pointing toward a reversal but the market isn't buoyant yet as news of inflation & a recession has caused the market to remain very cautious. For now, it tends to remain flat/sideways till FOMC meets on 22 September at 12mn SGT. If the interest rates hike turns out at 75bps as expected, then we could see BTC price action to be neutral/slightly bullish with no expected sell-off.

Current supports: 19.5k, 18.5k, 17.6k. If it breaks the 17.6k support line, a downward spiral to 13.4k is likely.

Current resistances: 20.7k, 22.5k, 24.5k.

We've flipped 19.5k zone many times, suggesting this could be strong support if the price maintains above, or a strong resistance if the price goes below.

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Technical Analysis by AMDG Team: Closing daily BTC 21.9 K

This chart was drawn last week. We were expecting price consolidation where BTC price goes sideways in a tight range (black squiggly line) but we drew 2 other paths that were possible.

It seems that BTC has chosen to go up & follow the orange line's path. There is a divergence forming (VMC indicator green dot with a black line joining) where volume is much higher now, most likely due to past week's liquidation event after BTC price dipped below 19k.

At the moment, the daily chart's looking 50-50 based on indicators but an evening star candle is forming at the moment. If this plays out, the orange line's path is more likely to happen with last week's lows possibly taken out. Take note that this could happen on 13 Sept, when FOMC sits for a meeting.

Invalidation would be closing daily above parallel channel above 21.9k

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Technical Analysis by AMDG Team: Market Bullish or Bearish

Here is the 2018 Pi Cycle Bottom & the last time it got close to bottom price is 54 days after the bottom.

Pi Cycle Bottom 2022 has been printed on 13 July. If price action were to match 2018,  5 Sep would be the last day for us to buy near bottom prices.

From the analysis, one of the 3 scenarios might play out for BTC: 

1. (Blue Arrow) Price goes to June's bottom at around 17.6k for a double bottom. It seems unlikely at this point as it'd present buyers/longs to open below Pi Cycle bottom.

2. (Yellow Arrow) For this to work out, we should see the price being rejected off the parallel channel near Fib retracement 0.618 @ 21400+. If the price is rejected there, we would go back to range lows of 19k before any further positive price action.

3. (Black Squiggly) This scenario denotes that the bottom is in and sideways consolidation is here to shake out retail.

In any case, all scenarios will point towards 23-25k.

On daily chart, we've crossed below parallel channel. 

This could mean 2 things:

1. Deviation to take out late "Long"-ers. Price will go back up next week to clear 21.4k.

2. Rejection off the parallel channel would mean we will see 21.4k first then 19k.

If you're a trader, wait between 5-12 September to not get caught out/stuck in any trades.

If you're an investor, we're closer to the bottom than to the top.

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