BTC High Time Frame (HTF) View:
BTC dipped and is consolidating at November's NPOC (naked point of control - where most trades occurred).

Last few days, the Binance FUD has been spreading and that has caused panic selling.

At this juncture, BTC needs to reclaim 17.2k to maintain bullish momentum. If price breaks down & closes below 16.7k, you can start filling your bags with cheaper BTC again. Fyi, current price is under BTC production cost (read: it's on fire sale again).

BTC.D (Bitcoin dominance) View:

BTC.D broke out of the descending wedge. What it means is that BTC price is stronger than alts (as a whole) during the dip.
If BTC.D continues going up to 43.69% where the next resistance is, it's time to load your alts.
In the worst case scenario, it might even go up to 48%.

For bullish case, there is a possibility of BTC.D heading back down as it has hit top of the MFI range on the daily.

If BTC.D breaks down, then alts would recover faster.

Take a look at the BTC.D cheat sheet to understand better on the cycles.

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BTC High Time Frame (HTF) View:
Price is consolidating under previous resistance. As mentioned, BTC has to flip above 17.2k to maintain the bullish scenario of hitting targets up north from 18.1-19-20.9k where the next resistances lies.

We still maintain that the price action seen in November is a deviation & probably a textbook play of Wyckoff Spring.

BTC Low Time Frame (LTF) View:
Zooming in on lower timeframes paints a good perspective of price action & what the whales are doing.

Looking at MFI (Money Flow Index) topping out with the red lines and then going down but not touching the bottom, it shows that the market wants to move up as the selloffs are getting less & less severe.

Our plan:
We've built our longs, took profits off & continued adding. We started adding at 15.8, and 16.6+ and now waiting to clear 17.2 before adding any more positions.

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DXY Update:
Dollar is weakening and has hit our 2nd target of 104. Ultimately, the target would be below 100 for macro view.
This would mean stocks, commodities & crypto would benefit in the medium term.

BTC Low Time Frame (LTF) View:

Money Flow Index is almost bottoming and with the weak weekend Price Action, look for nearest support at 16.6-16.7k whilst resistance is at 17.1k.

BTC High Time Frame (HTF) View (Daily):
LMACD shows good momentum going forward. Once we clear 17.1k, BTC will go back into the descending wedge pattern, confirming that the past month's Price Action was a deviation. If 17.1k is cleared, next target is 18.1k.

How are we going to play this? 

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BTC High Time Frame (HTF) View: We still maintain that this current Price Action is a deviation based on the daily chart. Looking at the Bitcoin Production indicator, we're in extreme discount mode with miners having to shut down their rigs & selling below electricity cost at a loss.

BTC Low Time Frame (LTF) View: There is positive momentum at the moment but volume is low & nearing overbought levels on lower timeframes. Current Price Action shows that we could possibly be heading up to 17.1+k before hitting resistance. Clearing that & consolidating the above would lead to an 18.5k price range. Rejection from current prices to 17.1k would mean that there is a chance of buying lower.

How are we going to play this?

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BTC CME Low Time Frame (LTF) view: At current it looks like a bearish pennant on 4h timeframe. A closing below 16k would lead to 14k. Closing above 17.2 would lead to 19.2k. Watch BTC.1 chart on Mon night 9-10 pm (SG/WIB) to see which way this goes.

How would we play this? Enter at CME close price 16.5k or 16k. If it breaks down from here & you have more capital to deploy, add at 14k. If it pumps from 16.5 to 17.2k, at least you're in so you can wait for retest to enter instead.

At the moment, the only FUD left is Coinbase going bankrupt and GBTC redemption at 40% discount to market.

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BTC High Time Frame (HTF) View: The last run-up was short-lived due to the liquidation cascade caused by Sam Bankman Fried popular known as SBF of FTX fame. As of now, the current bottom has hit exactly the prices on 10 Nov 2020. And what's more crazy is that this current bottom happened exactly 1 year from the top of Nov 2021. Our idea right now is to continue accumulating in spot between 14925-16100. If you're planning to trade futures on this, make sure your SL is tight or wait for the price to clear 19100.

DXY Update: The dollar index has broken down the parabolic channel with the next target of 105 before finding a bottom at 99. What does this mean for markets? As you've seen, stocks rallied strongly and are en route to recovery as CPI results were better than expected. For crypto markets, it does look like it's running along with DXY now but shouldn't be so as most market participants are taking more risks. Our thoughts? The current price range for BTC is a deviation and most likely we'll see prices going back to 18.5k by next week or two.

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BTC Update with Lower Time Frame (LTF) view:
BTC broke out of bull flag but then again, please remember that the CME gap is at 21.1k+.

Currently, it looks overbought in 4h timeframe. A dip to 20.9k could be a good point for entry (retest of bull flag) with targets up north as marked according to the price line.

The final target should be 25k, with the next stops being 22.5-22.7, and 23.2-23.5k.

Invalidation of the idea would be a break of 20k and lower.

We'll update the final target price as the date nears.

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DXY (dollar strength) is often used as a counter indicator to stocks & crypto. If it pumps, assets will dump, and vice versa. Gravestone Doji has formed on the 3d chart & bearish engulfing on the weekly chart. 

The next target is a sweep to 108, signaling that the stocks & crypto market will be green. If DXY breaks 108, then the bullish structure will no longer be valid and we'll likely see a bearish continuation.

BTC CME chart: As was mentioned previously, the price has broken out of the main downtrend line but has yet to break out of the local downtrend (red line).

Tuesday US time might probably be the critical turning point for a breakout.

As of now, we're potentially seeing a fulcrum bottom pattern.
If it plays out, the mid-term target is 25k. For the short-term, we're potentially seeing a move to 19.5k by Tues/Wed before moving up to 20.2k

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BTC CME chart update: This week, prior to CPI (consumer price index) numbers release, BTC has been slowly erasing last week's gains. 

On Thursday, the day of the release of the results, the price dipped and then went back up, forming a bullish pin bar candle before closing with a bearish hammer after hitting the local downtrend line. Technically, BTC has broken out of 69k downtrend line and so far it has tested the bottom support of the current range.

BTC Binance chart: A bullish pin bar last Thursday could signify a change in trend. If BTC bulls can defend 18.8k, we could see a double breakout to the range point of control, 20.1k. Currently, there's an imbalance between 20.1-22.4k, which could be the next point where BTC may touch. Invalidation of an idea would be a break & close below 18.8k or hard rejection at the local downtrend line of 19.8k.

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